Did Tariffs Cause the Great Depression? A Look at the Widespread Theory – msn
Key Takeaways
- The Smoot-Hawley Act was created to protect U.S. farmers and businesses from foreign competitors.
- The Smoot-Hawley Act increased tariffs on foreign imports to the U.S. by about 20%. Over 25 countries responded by increasing their own tariffs on American goods.
- Global trade plummeted, contributing to the ill effects of the Great Depression.
- More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto it.
- Hoover’s successor, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, worked to reduce tariffs and was given more authority to negotiate with heads of state under the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934.
In the analysis below, an economist familiar with the Trump Administration’s trade and economic policy strategy suggests a “narrow path” through which the inflationary impact of a trade war on American consumers might be buffered by devaluing the US dollar. Tariffs on money?
A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System – Stephen Miran, Hudson Bay Capital
“Conclusion: The next Trump term presents potential for sweeping change in the international economic system and possible accompanying volatility. It is important for investors to understand the tools that might be employed for such purposes, as well as the means by which government may attempt to avoid unwelcome consequences. This essay attempts to provide a user’s guide: a survey of some tools, their economic and market consequences, and steps that can be taken to mitigate unwanted side effects. Wall Street consensus that an Administration has no means by which to affect the foreign exchange value of the dollar, should it desire to do so, is wrong. Government has many means of doing so, both multilaterally and unilaterally. No matter what approach it takes, however, attention must be paid to steps to minimize volatility. Assistance from trading partners or the Federal Reserve can be helpful in doing so. In any case, because President Trump has shown tariffs are a means by which he can successfully extract negotiating leverage—and revenue—from trading partners, it is quite likely that tariffs are used prior to any currency tools. Because tariffs are USD-positive, it will be important for investors to understand the sequencing of reforms to the international trading system. The dollar is likely to strengthen before it reverses, if it does so. There is a path by which the Trump Administration can reconfigure the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit, but it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences.”
Miran’s theory came up this week as an AEI panel of economists discussed the Administration’s emerging economic policies (posted previously on this blog). Also see: Why Is Trump Undermining the US Economy? – Michael Strain/Project Syndicate.