Republican Sen. Joni Ernst won’t seek re-election in Iowa in 2026 – NBC
Democrats are winning where the party isn’t looking – Hill
“On Tuesday, Republicans lost their supermajority in the Iowa Senate. Catelin Drey’s victory in Senate District 1 is not just a local upset — it is part of a growing national pattern of Democratic overperformance in state legislative special elections. Donald Trump carried this district by more than 11 points in 2024. Drey’s victory represents a 20-point swing toward the left — making this one of the most consequential state legislative flips of the year.
“In fact, Democrats are overperforming their 2024 results by an average of nearly 16 points in state legislative races, according to The Downballot’s special elections Big Board. That is not a blip — it is the same kind of sustained overperformance that foreshadowed the blue wave in 2018...”