2025 Social Security groundhog day:
US needs $28 trillion more over 75 years to pay promised benefits
“A few months after the Trump Administration chain-sawed Social Security’s leadership and staff, four newly installed senior officials overseeing the program released the annual report on its declining financial condition. This year’s actuarial forecast is a bit gloomier due in large part to a benefit expansion enacted by the previous Congress. However, in the big picture, not much has changed. Social Security’s looming insolvency remains…
“As I have pointed out to the Senate Budget Committee, the process of spending down Social Security reserves already is increasing overall federal spending and pushing up annual deficits. Drawing down reserves in the Social Security trust funds requires the Treasury to sell bonds (or find other sources of revenue) to raise cash to pay the program’s 74 million beneficiaries.
“On pp. 51-52, this year’s report estimates that Social Security will draw down $181 billion from the combined trust funds in 2025 with the amount rising to $405 billion in 2033. As a result, the federal government is gradually moving to finance part of the program’s benefits through newly issued debt substituting for now-insufficient payroll taxes...”
More on these issues can be found in these CCSE articles and testimony:
- Why Social Security’s big benefit cut won’t happen: The U.S. Treasury already is filling its funding gap – statement to U.S. Senate Budget Committee
- A ‘conservative/progressive’ path to Social Security solvency: bend the benefit cost curve, grow revenue, and protect lower earners – statement to Senate Appropriations Committee
- A Widening Gap in Life Expectancy Makes Raising Social Security’s Retirement Age a Particularly Bad Deal for Low-Wage Earners – Society of Actuaries
- Growing inequality has shrunk Social Security’s revenue. Revitalizing its tax base could help restore solvency without cutting benefits.
- Center on Capital & Social Equity work on Social Security and retirement savings (updated January 2025).