CBO Confirms GOP Budget Bill Triggers Medicare Cuts – House Budget Committee

Trump and GOP’s tax bill would force cuts to Medicare, CBO says – msn/WaPost

“When legislation significantly adds to the national debt, which already exceeds $36.2 trillion, it triggers ‘sequestration,’ or compulsory budgetary reductions. In that scenario, Medicare cuts would be capped at 4 percent annually, or $490 billion over 10 years…” 

Interesting procedural wrinkle as the House tax and spending bill passes and moves to the Senate….As noted before, Congress could save more $$$ while causing much less harm to people by carefully reducing the rate of growth of Medicare spending instead of chain-sawing Medicaid. Congress could also trim the tax exclusion of employer-provided medical benefits particularly at top of income ladder.

Historical National Health Expenditures, 2023 – CMS

– NHE grew 7.5% to $4.9 trillion in 2023, or $14,570 per person, and accounted for 17.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
– Medicare spending grew 8.1% to $1,029.8 billion in 2023, or 21 percent of total NHE.
– Medicaid spending grew 7.9% to $871.7 billion in 2023, or 18 percent of total NHE.
– Private health insurance spending grew 11.5% to $1,464.6 billion in 2023, or 30 percent of total NHE.

How does the tax exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance work? – TPC

Reduce Tax Subsidies for Employment-Based Health Insurance – CBO

There are better ways to reduce federal tax subsidies for employer-provided health coverage than what CBO looks at here. But the numbers provide an idea of how much money the government could save by doing so.

Nothing new under the sun:

Retooling Tax Subsidies for Health Coverage: Old Ideas, New Politics – Karl Polzer/GWU

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