“At this (roughly) halfway point of 2024, several large unions have already negotiated robust contracts with employers. In some cases, they have benefitted from worker power produced by strikes and union solidarity in 2023. These contracts are important in and of themselves, but those I will discuss below also could have implications well beyond the parties who negotiated them. Several other prominent negotiations appear to be headed toward agreements without strikes or lockouts, including bargaining between parties with previously contentious relationships. This change in tone — or, at least, willingness to bargain sincerely — may suggest that (some, not all) employers accept collective bargaining as ordinary business rather than a fight to the death. At least, for now. Two large and economically consequential bargaining relationships present meaningful risks of strikes. If strikes occur, they could complicate that story about a new era in labor relations. There are also some unions trapped in negotiations that either never seem to end or never truly begin. So, the news and forecast are not all good…
“2024 will feature a lot more intense bargaining, a fair number of strikes and lockouts, informational picketing by unions unable or unwilling to strike, and aggressive worker organizing. It’s entirely possible that the whole picture will look quite different at the end of the year than the partial picture known to us today.
“Nonetheless, there are some trends developing that are worth noting with the first half of the year behind us. First, more negotiations, at least between large unions and large corporations, are culminating in contracts without strikes or lockouts in 2024. This may be a new era of collective bargaining as ordinary business rather than mortal combat. Second, the substance of contracts appears to be leaning strongly in workers’ favor, although it is too soon to compare 2024 to 2023. If proven true by the end of the year, this would mean comparative worker power remains strong. Third, concessions are no longer on the table and some unions are winning back wages and benefits relinquished in prior negotiations. As I declared last year, the era of concessions bargaining is over.
“Finally, the laws limiting strikes in certain sectors are proving to be a meaningful barrier to negotiations concluding after a reasonable amount of time. Most strikingly, the parties’ comparative power cannot dictate the substance of agreements when strikes are unavailable or unreasonably delayed. We will see what happens over the next six months, but it may be time to reconsider those laws.”