“Ok, so the US economy has just about avoided a recession in 2023, although Q4 data will not be pretty. I have argued in previous posts that a slump in the US economy would only happen when profit growth stops and rising interest rates push up borrowing costs for companies that look to invest. Then companies will be squeezed from two directions. Such a squeeze would lead of bankruptcies of the weakest and a reduction in investment and employment by all.
“Corporate profits in the US are now falling.
“…Whether the US economy goes into an outright slump in 2024 or just avoids it again, is only an issue to discuss for economists. The major economies are still growing at a pitiful pace, if at all, while the poorer economies are trapped in an inescapable debt disaster. Debt servicing costs in a clutch of the world’s poorest countries are set to soar to “crisis” levels as high interest rates damage already fragile economies, according to the World Bank, in its latest International Debt report...even if the US economy crawls along next year, the rest of the world’s economies are heading down.”