Donald Trump’s Universal Baseline Tariff – CRFB
“Former President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump recently suggested implementing a baseline tariff of 10 percent on all U.S. imports. We estimate this policy could raise approximately $2.5 trillion over the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 to 2035 budget window under conventional scoring. The tariff is also likely to reduce economic growth – although the Trump campaign disputes this – which we estimate could shrink the revenue gains to roughly $2 trillion. Depending on whether or not these economic effects are incorporated, we estimate the policy would reduce debt as share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY 2035 by 4 to 7 percentage points.”