News, Opinions & Events
CBO Confirms GOP Budget Bill Triggers Medicare Cuts – House Budget Committee
Trump and GOP’s tax bill would force cuts to Medicare, CBO says – msn/WaPost
“When legislation significantly adds to the national debt, which already exceeds $36.2 trillion, it triggers ‘sequestration,’ or compulsory budgetary reductions. In that scenario, Medicare cuts would be capped at 4 percent annually, or $490 billion over 10 years…”
Interesting procedural wrinkle as the House tax and spending bill passes and moves to the Senate….As noted before, Congress could save more $$$ while causing much less harm to people by carefully reducing the rate of growth of Medicare spending instead of chain-sawing Medicaid. Congress could also trim the tax exclusion of employer-provided medical benefits particularly at top of income ladder.
Historical National Health Expenditures, 2023 – CMS
– NHE grew 7.5% to $4.9 trillion in 2023, or $14,570 per person, and accounted for 17.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
– Medicare spending grew 8.1% to $1,029.8 billion in 2023, or 21 percent of total NHE.
– Medicaid spending grew 7.9% to $871.7 billion in 2023, or 18 percent of total NHE.
– Private health insurance spending grew 11.5% to $1,464.6 billion in 2023, or 30 percent of total NHE.
How does the tax exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance work? – TPC
Reduce Tax Subsidies for Employment-Based Health Insurance – CBO
There are better ways to reduce federal tax subsidies for employer-provided health coverage than what CBO looks at here. But the numbers provide an idea of how much money the government could save by doing so.
Nothing new under the sun:
Retooling Tax Subsidies for Health Coverage: Old Ideas, New Politics – Karl Polzer/GWU
Economic Analysis Shows ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Taking From Poor, Giving To Rich – HuffPost
“The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Republican bill would shrink resources for low-income households.”
How proposed changes to Medicaid are expected to impact near-elderly Americans – Brookings
“The loss of health insurance coverage among 50–64 year-olds from either imposing work requirements reducing federal support for the Medicaid expansion population is expected to be particularly costly.”
Israel’s leaders continue hammering the star of David into a swastika. Jews around the world (and people with Jewish ethnic heritage like many of us) should draw a bright red line between themselves (and their values) and Israel’s genocide in Palestine – which is being financed by the US. Remember: What goes around will come around.
NATO leaders give Israel a Gaza ultimatum – Newsweek
Four Facts About Israel’s Genocide – Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention
Levin calls on IDF to strip Yair Golan of rank after comment on killing babies – Times of Israel
Just another “antisemite” to be excommunicated by Israeli (or American) society? A man telling the truth to murderers?
BTW, in a meeting Monday, “Virginia faith leaders” justified their silence on Israel’s genocide explaining that what is happening in Gaza “is a complex issue”. But the immediate issue is simple: Stop killing children and others who cannot fight back. What are these “Christian” leaders afraid of? Controversy? Their sources of funding? What would J. Christ have them do?
Tariffs, Medicaid Cuts run neck and neck on muddy track
White House pushes for quick approval of ‘big, beautiful bill,’ but key hurdles remain – LA Times
One of many reasons R strategists want to whip their tax/spending bill through Congress ASAP is getting Medicaid cuts across the finish line before Trump’s tariffs push up prices. Higher tariffs, which function as a tax increase, may lower consumer spending and increase job loss. During recessions, governors typically push Congress to broaden Medicaid coverage and increase the federal share of Medicaid payments. So, if Trump’s bill stalls, economic circumstances might make it much harder to keep Medicaid cuts in play this summer. Particularly in the Senate, where many see the bill as a fiscal disaster.
Tariffs trigger price hikes: Shoes, clothing and toys to get more expensive this summer – USA Today
The Economic Effects of President Trump’s Tariffs – Penn Wharton Budget Model
The New Dark Age – Chris Hedges/Consortium News
“The genocide in Gaza has imploded the subterfuges we use to fool ourselves and attempt to fool others. It mocks every virtue we claim to uphold, including the right of freedom of expression.
“It is a testament to our hypocrisy, cruelty and racism. We cannot, having provided billions of dollars in weapons and persecuted those who decry the genocide, make moral claims anymore that will be taken seriously.”
Featured
Letter to US citizens:
Student expulsions are an attack on all Americans’ freedom of speech
“This is how fascism happens. First, they come for the powerless. In time, they
will come for you.”
“The federal government has had authority since 1986 to criminally prosecute individuals and companies employing workers not legally in the United State, but it has rarely used that authority regardless of the administration in office. A one-year snapshot taken during Trump’s first term found that no company was criminally prosecuted for having workers not authorized to be in the country, a Syracuse University study shows…
“Changing the equation to incentivize employers to help enforce, rather than skirt, the nation’s immigration laws does not mean subjecting them to cruel and unusual punishment. No need to suspend billionaires and entrepreneurs in cages from a tower or use branding irons. It does mean applying and stiffening laws against hiring illegals and tax avoidance. Financial penalties, public shaming, and loss of contracts could be a start. If that isn’t sufficient, start putting law-breaking employers in jail. They are lining their pockets by stealing jobs from American workers, both native born and those immigrating legally.”
Multiple conflicts of interest:
“By directing a high-powered federal agency working to alter the size and nature of the federal workforce, Elon Musk may be jeopardizing the ability of companies he owns and directs, including SpaceX and Tesla, to contract with the federal government.”
Thanks to the Virginian-Pilot for running our op-ed:
Many questions, few answers about exempting tips from taxes – Karl Polzer/Virginian-Pilot
“Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposal to exempt tipped income from state taxes — like President-elect Donald Trump’s on a national level — could help some low-wage workers. However, it also poses risks for others and raises complex issues facing scrutiny as the state legislature begins its work…”
To provide access to all readers (the newspaper’s op-eds are gated), below is the original submission including links to sources:
Statement to 11/20/24 US House Appropriations Committee hearing on Social Security:
“As keeper of the federal government’s purse strings, the House Appropriations Committee plays a part in maintaining Social Security’s commitment to American workers, their families, and taxpayers. First, Committee members can weigh in as Congress and the Treasury find hundreds of billions of dollars annually in cash outside the appropriations process to draw down Social Security reserves. The Committee can also help ‘leave room’ in future budgets for revenue increases that might be necessary to keep Social Security solvent as it coordinates with House Ways & Means, Budget, and other Committees on tax and spending issues.”
The next President and Congress will face daunting fiscal issues. In the shadow of historic levels of national debt, lawmakers will be bargaining over trillions of dollars of taxes and spending as they deal with expiration of the Trump tax cuts. On top of that loom major Social Security financing gaps. Paying promised benefits will require the government to raise more than $2 trillion in cash over the next eight years and more than $24 trillion to achieve long-run solvency.
This paper presents policy options – some favored by conservatives, others by progressives – as a framework for negotiating a solution. Taken together, the changes could generate more than twice as much in savings and revenue than needed to balance Social Security’s books.
The nation’s biggest banks in effect have become today’s payday lenders.
Which U.S. Households Have Credit Card Debt? – St. Louis Fed
46% of American households held credit card debt in 2022.
– Expand the child tax credit to help more working-class parents and grandparents raising kids.
– Provide Social Security credit for unpaid work raising young children.
– Update/improve SSI so more people with disabilities can work, save.
– If taxes must go up, hold the working poor harmless.
Click here for longer version including references and related articles.
CCSE work contributes to Congressional hearing on financing Social Security
Center on Capital & Social Equity (CCSE) analysis and advocacy were evidenced during the June 4 House Ways & Means subcommittee on Social Security hearing of the program’s trust fund. Over the past years, CCSE has worked to explore issues affecting low-wage workers and lay groundwork to defend their Social Security benefits when Congress eventually refinances the nation’s most important social program.
It’s Social Security ‘groundhog day’ as trustees repeat annual forecast of declining finances
“…The trustees’ report, however, neglects to mention how Social Security already is impacting the overall federal budget. As pointed out to the Senate Budget Committee, the mechanics of spending down Social Security’s reserves require the Treasury to draw funds from general revenue and issue new debt to the public. As a result, Social Security is gradually and organically moving to paying for current benefits through debt substituting for now-insufficient payroll taxes that it traditionally relies on.”
Missing the obvious: life expectancy in the U.S. is closely related to income – Karl Polzer
“The underlying theory is simple: More income and wealth allow people and governments to support more years of life. Fewer resources put them at a disadvantage. Some politicians who see the connection may be leery of talking about it. Doing so would lead to awkward questions about improving working and living conditions for millions of Americans and dealing with growing economic inequality.
“The strong relationship between income and longevity is clear when comparing states… (E)ight of the nine states with the lowest median household income also are among the bottom nine in longevity. Similar clustering occurs comparing the highest ranked states across the two categories. Seven of the nine states with the highest median household income also are among the top nine in life expectancy.
“Realizing they are rowing in the same economic boat could prompt states to join forces on policy changes, particularly Mississippi, West Virginia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, New Mexico, Kentucky, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Tennessee, and others ranking at or near the bottom…
“Presidential candidate and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley strongly proposes raising the program’s retirement age on the premise that increased life spans are undermining Social Security’s long-term solvency. If long-held assumptions about longevity were challenged, and potential losses to low-income workers and low-income states caused by raising the eligibility age came to light, would she change her position? Republican candidate Donald Trump, by the way, opposes cuts in Social Security as do most Democrats…”
Thanks to the Washington Examiner for running this op-ed:
Senate minimum wage bills make bipartisan compromise possible – Washington Examiner
For longer version with references, see:
Previous work on this issue:
One way to make living easier in Virginia – letter to WaPost
Yes, raise the minimum wage, but don’t stop there – op-ed
“More Americans are rightly asking if Israel could neutralize Hamas without massive destruction and loss of civilian life. Indiscriminate air attacks by the Netanyahu regime already have killed and injured tens of thousands of Gazans with no end to the violence in sight. To put this in perspective, imagine how Washington, D.C., would look if a foreign government with the power to fence in the District of Columbia dropped a comparable number of bombs here while shutting off access to water and food and destroying most of the capital area’s housing and medical system. UN officials say conditions in Gaza are catastrophic.”
Thanks to the Washington Post for publishing our letter to the editor:
One way to make living easier in Virginia – Karl Polzer/letter to WaPost
“Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) told reporters he is ‘concerned about the cost of living in Virginia and we’re continuing to evaluate how best to address that,’ as reported in the Nov. 26 Metro article ‘Budget battle looms in Virginia. Facing a tighter fiscal environment and Democratic control of the legislature, Mr. Youngkin and fellow Republicans could help working families without denting the budget by making an expected Democratic push for a higher minimum wage a bipartisan affair.
“The GOP has been trying to attract more minority and working-class voters. However, party leaders have stopped short of addressing core economic issues, such as supporting higher wages and better benefits, and mainly stress cultural issues…”
Background Information on these issues provided to Virginia legislators
McCarthy & Co. offer themselves up on the cross to help motivate lazy poor people back to work
Work requirements are a policy failure: Why are they still an option? – The Hill
Thanks to the Washington Post for running our letter:
“Letting Americans Down”
“How can House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), President Biden and Senate leaders claim to represent the working class and poor when Medicaid work requirements are a focal point in the debt ceiling standoff and the Trump-era tax cuts are not? According to the Congressional Budget Office, the work requirements in the Limit, Save, Grow Act would have a tiny impact (about $5.6 billion in fiscal 2025) on the nation’s $31.4 trillion national debt, but they would increase the number of uninsured and state costs and have no effect on hours worked by Medicaid recipients.
“In contrast, ending the Trump-era tax cuts, which disproportionately benefit the wealthy, could put a major dent in the national debt….”
Because most of this site’s readers won’t be able to get through the newspaper’s pay gate, here’s the draft of the letter sent to the Post:
Debt ceiling negotiators focus on a ‘speck’ in benefits for the poor, ignore the ‘logs’ in their own eyes.
“Legislative Choices for Paying Promised Social Security Benefits”
Statement of Karl Polzer, Center on Capital & Social Equity,
U.S. Senate Budget Committee hearing: “Protecting Social
Security for All: Making the Wealthy Pay Their Fair Share”
Has DT crossed the line into delirium tremens?
“It came out of his mouth during a campaign speech last month.”